The Variables In Climate

This blog post we will see how some of the variables in climate can account for the ever changing climate, better than human induced CO2 can.

The Variables in Climate

 

Climate is huge, meaning that the earth has many types of climates, so to understand global climate will take some time, however understanding the variables in climate may be easier to understand and that is what this section will look at. The earth’s climate is made up of a lot of variables from gases in the air, to phases of the oceans, to solar activity along with many other variables. The key is to remember that they are just that variables, meaning they fluctuate with time.

So let’s further examine these variables, starting with the sun and working

our way down. The sun is known to be the primary heat source to our earth, giving us what we know here on earth as temperature. This temperature can be noted as fluctuating from day to night, as we know from just observing day and night temperatures in general and how they change.  Now, taking a further in depth look at the sun, let’s imagine the sun being our engine, if you rev up your engine it works harder and gets warmer faster, than if you were to casually increase speed on the engine, now look at this as the sun, during an active sun phase, the sun is emitting a rather large amount of solar activity in which some heads directly to the earth, during this time the sun is hot, so all this extra heat travels away from the sun and luckily for us some makes it down to us here on the earth’s surface.  However, the sun also has a period known as in-active sun phase, during this time the sun is not as hot and only releasing smaller amounts of solar activity towards the earth, this allows less heat to  be transferred into the earth and the earth’s surface.  Now this process takes place on an average 11 year solar cycle, however each solar cycle is different, this is what helps shape climate as well, for instance one solar cycle might have record setting solar activity, while the next might not be as strong, so let’s take a look at what this could mean, in our example we have Solar cycle A and Solar cycle B, for Solar cycle A, we max out with 145 sunspots, while Solar cycle B only has 77 sunspots, imagine the sunspots as the sun’s exhaust system, where all the heat is being released from the sun towards the earth, so if you have a period with 145 sunspots, this means higher amounts of energy are being released towards the earth, while only 77 sunspots, would release lesser amounts of solar energy towards the earth.  So now let’s look at a bigger image of this taking place.

Year 1-7 the Sun is currently in Solar Cycle A and heading into the max around Year 7, this means from year 8-11 roughly we will start to see a decline in solar activity on earth and a gradual cooling of the earth’s temps and this will last until year 11 when we hit the solar min, coldest time period, now year 12 through 18 we rise up to another solar max B, however during this time period we only seen 77 sunspots, so this entire cycle was cooler than the first, meaning our temps on earth, might not have been as warm on average.  

So now let’s throw temperature and the solar cycle variable into this mix to see it work first hand, so here is our example.

Solar Cycle A  145 Sunspots                          Solar Cycle B 77 Sunspots

City Data for Test City during the month of July from Year 1- Year 23

Year 1  (Rising into Solar Max A)( AVG July Temp for Test City   82F)

Year 2 (Rising into Solar Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 84F)

Year 3 (Still rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 85F)

Year 4 (Rising towards Max A)  (AVG July Temp for Test City 86F)

Year 5 (Rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 88F)

Year 6 (Near the Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F)

Year 7 (Solar Max A is reached) (AVG July Temps for Test City 90F)

Year 8 (Leaving Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F)

Year 9 (Falling towards the Min) (AVG July Temps for Test City 87F)

Year 10 (Near the Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 84F)

Year 11 (Solar Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test  City 81F)

Now we start the 2nd Solar Cycle, however it was not as strong as the 1st cycle, so during the solar max year our AVG July Temp only made it to 88F, this time, instead of 90F like what took place during Year 7, this also led to the further decrease of our AVG July temp during the 2nd Solar Min to around 78F due to the earth already being cooler to start with for this area.  This example above shows you what happens when you take the sun and temperature variable of our climate. For the next part we will introduce another variable to the formula.

 

The next variable we will add is one gas that is well known to all on planet earth and that is CO2, let’s examine what happens with the arrival of this.

 

Solar Cycle A  145 Sunspots                          Solar Cycle B 77 Sunspots

City Data for Test City during the month of July from Year 1- Year 23

Year 1  (Rising into Solar Max A)( AVG July Temp for Test City   82F)(CO2  45PPM)

Year 2 (Rising into Solar Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 84F) (CO2  60PPM)

Year 3 (Still rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 85F)(CO2 90PPM)

Year 4 (Rising towards Max A)  (AVG July Temp for Test City 86F)(CO2 145PPM)

Year 5 (Rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 88F) (CO2 220PPM)

Year 6 (Near the Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F) (CO2 255PPM)

Year 7 (Solar Max A is reached) (AVG July Temps for Test City 90F) (CO2 290PPM)

Year 8 (Leaving Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F) (CO2 315PPM)

Year 9 (Falling towards the Min) (AVG July Temps for Test City 87F) (CO2 345PPM)

Year 10 (Near the Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 84F) (CO2 420PPM)

Year 11 (Solar Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test  City 81F) (CO2 445PPM)

*PPM- stands for CO2 part per million.

But as you can see above, we added CO2 to the formula, and we noted that year 1-7 the  earth’s temps rose, along with CO2 making it very easy to blame CO2 for the rise in temps, however year 8-11 the earth’s temps fell, and CO2 continued to rise, meaning that CO2 is not the primary driver in the earth’s temperatures as the sun has more control. This can be documented as of today as taking place, the year of 2014 we are seeing this take place right now the earth is cooling because we just left our solar max, and the CO2 is


still rising though.

 

Now, we are ready to throw our next variable into this awesome formula called Climate, this one is the Decadal Oscillation formula, for our example today we will use the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, this is the transfer of cooler or warmer ocean waters to the surface, don’t get it confused with ENSO, this takes place in more of the Northern Pacific, while ENSO is the Tropical Pacific.  But during a Cold Phase PDO, the sea surface temps of the North Pacific, are cooler, while during a warming phase the sea surface temps are warmer.  So now let’s take a look at what happens, when we transfer from a warm phase to a cool phase, which has been taking place over the past few years now, this has also been now labeled the Pause in Global Warming.

Solar Cycle A  145 Sunspots                          Solar Cycle B 77 Sunspots

City Data for Test City during the month of July from Year 1- Year 23

Year 1  (Rising into Solar Max A)( AVG July Temp for Test City   82F)(CO2  45PPM)(Warm Phase PDO now are AVG July temp is around 84F instead of 82F)

Year 2 (Rising into Solar Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 84F) (CO2  60PPM)

Year 3 (Still rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 85F)(CO2 90PPM)

Year 4 (Rising towards Max A)  (AVG July Temp for Test City 86F)(CO2 145PPM)

Year 5 (Rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 88F) (CO2 220PPM)

Year 6 (Near the Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F) (CO2 255PPM)

Year 7 (Solar Max A is reached) (AVG July Temps for Test City 90F) (CO2 290PPM)

Year 8 (Leaving Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F) (CO2 315PPM)(Cold Phase PDO now are AVG July temp is around 85F instead of the 89F above)

Year 9 (Falling towards the Min) (AVG July Temps for Test City 87F) (CO2 345PPM)

Year 10 (Near the Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 84F) (CO2 420PPM)

Year 11 (Solar Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test  City 81F) (CO2 445PPM)

*PPM- stands for CO2 part per million.

So as you can see during Year 1 our Pacific Decadal Oscillation was Warm, this allowed for the transportation of more warm air into our Test City, giving us the warmer temps, but by Year 8 we had seen a flip into the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, this now supported our temps being cooler. This Pacific Decadal Oscillation takes place roughly every 30 years it flips from warm to cool.  The next flip will take place roughly around the year 2040.

Well if that is not enough for you yet, let’s throw another wrinkle into this formula, this time we will all it the ENSO phase, this is where we find El-Nino and the little La-Nina family.  For this example, we will say that our Test City has warmer weather during an El-Nino event and cooler weather during a La-Nina event, you will need to check your local climatology to see what happens in your area during these two phases.

Solar Cycle A  145 Sunspots                          Solar Cycle B 77 Sunspots

City Data for Test City during the month of July from Year 1- Year 23

Year 1  (Rising into Solar Max A)( AVG July Temp for Test City   82F)(CO2  45PPM)(Warm Phase PDO now are AVG July temp is around 84F instead of 82F)(ENSO Phase El-Nino now are AVG July Temp hits 86F instead of 82F).

Year 2 (Rising into Solar Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 84F) (CO2  60PPM)

Year 3 (Still rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 85F)(CO2 90PPM)

Year 4 (Rising towards Max A)  (AVG July Temp for Test City 86F)(CO2 145PPM)

Year 5 (Rising towards Max A) (AVG July Temp for Test City 88F) (CO2 220PPM)

Year 6 (Near the Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F) (CO2 255PPM)

Year 7 (Solar Max A is reached) (AVG July Temps for Test City 90F) (CO2 290PPM)

Year 8 (Leaving Max A)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 89F) (CO2 315PPM)(Cold Phase PDO now are AVG July temp is around 85F instead of the 89F above)(ENSO Phase La-Nina now are AVG July temp only hits 81F instead of 89F)

Year 9 (Falling towards the Min) (AVG July Temps for Test City 87F) (CO2 345PPM)

Year 10 (Near the Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test City 84F) (CO2 420PPM)

Year 11 (Solar Min)  (AVG July Temps for Test  City 81F) (CO2 445PPM)

*PPM- stands for CO2 part per million.

So as you can see, that the ENSO phase also has a major role in our air temps here on earth as well, that is just another variable in the climate world that we deal with.  So for this book, these are the major variables I wanted to share and how each of them play a role in our Climate Change of the earth.

 

 



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